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February 8, 2019As the UIL girls basketball playoffs begin, PBR’s Jason Key and Shane Laflin take a look at the contenders and peer into the crystal ball for predictions on what teams will make the march to San Antonio for the (February 28 – March 2) State Tournament.
6A Region 1
Region 1 will be hotly contested. The heavyweights have all played each other at some point in the regular season, which will make the adjustments very interesting.
Cedar Hill– Cedar Hill has carried the weight of being one of the top contenders in the state throughout the year, playing in and winning the vast majority of a number of big regular season games including coming out champions of the prestigious Sandra Meadows Classic in December.
Why Cedar Hill wins it– Consistency. Cedar Hill has been the most consistent team throughout the year. The senior-laden team has the go-to star in 2019 Wichita State commit Dajinae “DJ” McCarty. McCarty is supplemented by 2019 North Texas commit Destinee McDowell and 2019 Vanderbilt commit Taylor Hutchins and has depth at both the guard position and inside in the case of foul trouble. This team values defense and in the playoffs when things can get tight and sometimes scoring is low in these “win or go home” settings, getting consecutive stops is huge.
Why Cedar Hill doesn’t win it – They haven’t before. The biggest obstacle in Cedar Hill’s way could possibly be the fact that, as a program, they have to take the next step and finish the biggest of games come playoff time. They need to ignore outside voices, the past, and other programs .. and lock in to their possible 7 game run.
Desoto– Desoto is amongst the youngest and most talented teams in the state. They have progressed throughout the season, and the addition of 2020 Ash’a Thompson in January from injury could put Desoto over the top.
Why Desoto wins it– Depth and size. Desoto is huge with 3 posts 6’3” or taller. They have numbers at every position and are going to cause problems for every opponent they see on both ends of the floor. This team has depth, size, and athleticism. Quite frankly, there just aren’t many teams who have all three.
Why Desoto doesn’t win it – Youth. Particularly at the point guard position, Desoto will have to remain poised down the stretch of tight games. With only one senior on the roster (Houston commit Bria Patterson), Desoto’s young guns will have to show the tough regular season schedule produced enough experience. Making adjustments with young players in big moments can be challenging. Another factor: Who is the go-to player to make plays to get them through tough moments?
Irving MacArthur– Irving MacArthur has one of the better starting fives in the state. 2020 Sarah Andrews’ return from injury has a talented team playing their best at the right time.
Why Irving MacArthur wins it– Peaking at the right time. MacArthur has been inconsistent in big games, but seems to have rounded into form during district play. MacArthur is extremely dangerous in a single game elimination format. A PG who can control the tempo of the game is a huge asset (see: Erin Grant at Mansfield HS from 1998-2002).
Why Irving MacArthur doesn’t win it– Defense and rebounding. On paper, MacArthur should be amongst the best defensive teams in the state, but the season hasn’t played out that way thus far. If this is cleaned up, MacArthur can beat anybody. They canbeat anyone, but will they have the discipline to do the little things that lead to winning in the post season? They have more L’s than W’s this season against highly regarded opponents. Who will make plays when a team forces the ball out of Andrews’ hands?
Duncanville– Duncanville has rounded into typical form in a relatively weak district 8. This time has allowed Duncanville to reset after the Hannah Gusters transfer saga and gather into a different style of play. 2020 Deja Kelly and 2021 Nyah Wilson lead a deep group of perimeter players. 2021 Zaria Rufus’ability to rebound, get some easy put backs, and stay out of foul trouble will be key.
Why Duncanville wins it– Program experience. Duncanville expects to win state championships year in and year out, regardless of circumstances. This cannot be discounted once the pressure of big games arrives. Duncanville is playing with a real chip on their shoulders this year and has been allowed to breathe and regroup during district play.
Why Duncanville doesn’t win it – Lack of post size and depth. Duncanville is relatively small and must find a way to negate size in many possible matchups throughout the playoffs.
Dallas Skyline– Skyline is battled tested and tough. Led by 2019 UNT commit Jazion Jackson, Skyline has multiple options on the offensive end.
Why Skyline wins it– Battle hardened. Skyline played a very tough non-district schedule and will head into every matchup with confidence. Their record includes a victory over Duncanville (at DVille) on January 3 rd.
Why Skyline doesn’t win it – Lack of depth. Skyline has a rock solid starting five, they may have to get productive minutes from the bench – one or two players will have to step up.
Other teams to watch
Hurst LD Bell– 2020’s Myra Gordon and Kyla Davis are a nice combo for this team.
Arlington Bowie– Coach Carruthers is experienced; they have Lamar signee Malay McQueen, and young ‘21’s Amari Dickerson and Nya Harmon.
Lewisville
Denton Guyer– Tarleton State signee Callie Boyles, ’20 Jade Thompson, ’21 Bella Earle, ’22 Alisa Williams led this team to a district championship and give them well rounded options.
Hebron – Freshman Cammie McKinney is an intriguing young talent
Mansfield Summit– First year coach Amy Gillum has some talent – most notably ’20 Tamisha Lampkin
RichardsonJason’s Pick – Cedar Hill
Shane’s Pick – Cedar Hill
6A Region 2
Region 2 will have many familiar names from the Metroplex and the Centex region in Austin. This region is extremely deep and expected to have a ton of close games.
Allen– Allen has been in a lot of big games and looks to come out on top of the deepest district in the state (9-6A). 2019 MCDAA & Louisville commit Nyah Green leads a team that has all the pieces to win a state championship.
Why Allen wins it– Total team effort. Allen has depth and size with an elite player leading the way. It would be no shocker to see Allen win the region.
Why Allen doesn’t it– Lack of true PG. The one bug-a-boo for Allen all season has been turnovers. When Allen takes care of the ball, they are tough to beat. Allen beat Sachse in two close games early in the season. It is tough to beat a similarly talented team three times in a season. Green has to be the primary ball handler, is the focus of the defense, and primary scorer – quite a load. Someone will have to supplement these duties.
Sachse– Led by UTEP commit Avery Crouse, the defending region champs have a mixture of experienced seniors and juniors who are proven winners. Sachse is going to be a TOUGH out in Region 2.
Why Sachse wins it– United front. Sachse is old-school in their approach, with the majority of the team playing together year-round. The continuity on this team is real and being in so many battles together could bear real fruit. “Been there, done that” experience means a lot at this level.
Why Sachse doesn’t win it– Struggles against elite teams this year. Sachse has been super-solid but has struggled against the elite teams (particularly Allen) this year. Do they find the adjustment to win the game(s) that matter most? That shadow of a doubt can change things in a tight game.
Hendrickson – Norma Sierra has her team rolling! They are lead by UTSA signee Mikayla Woods and they have a talented wing in ’21 Zoe Nelson. They are the Austin area’s best team and they have proven it.
Why Hendrickson wins it– Their scrambling and trapping style can really overwhelm teams. They are smart enough to trap and rotate at random times and it keeps teams completely out of rhythm.
Why Hendrickson doesn’t win it– If a team can be poised enough to bait the trap and attack out of it, they can exploit the style. If a team can limit turnovers and force Hendrickson to have to score from the perimeter, it could spell trouble. The key is to not turn the ball over against them – they feed like sharks.
Plano– The defending state champs (Plano was in Region 1 last year). Plano has flown a little under the radar and will be battle tested coming out of district 9-6A.
Why Plano wins it– Been there, done that. Plano has the lead player in 2020 super-recruit Jordyn Merritt and the complementary pieces surrounding her to beat anyone in a single game situation.
Why Plano doesn’t win it – Youth. Plano graduated a ton of experience from last year’s team and has replaced those players with youth.
Prosper– Prosper flew under the radar early in the season, but has shown it belongs in the “district of doom” 9-6A.
Why Prosper wins it– Basketball Bully. MCDAA and Baylor commit Jordyn Oliver finds a way. Prosper has shown they are very well coached and have found a way to showcase Jordyn while getting enough from the surrounding pieces against the best of opponents throughout the season.
Why Prosper doesn’t win it– Scoring droughts. Prosper has struggled to score at times this season, relying on a rock-solid defense. Prosper must keep these droughts to a minimum while continuing to play defense.
Other teams to watch
Mesquite Horn– Talented team, but can be reckless. UNT signee Nyah Boyd, ’21 Jasmine Shavers, and ’20 Tra’Liyah Washington are focal points.
Plano East - TCU signee Tavy Diggs anchors a team with youth at the guard spot.
Rockwall– Head Coach Kasie Brewer always has a disciplined team and a game plan.
Garland Lakeview– Young, talented, and erratic; ‘21’s Sanaa Baker, Aja Scott, and Jaliya Sharp will be on people’s radar.
Cedar RidgeJason’s Pick – Allen
Shane’s Pick – Hard to go against Allen, but don’t sleep on Sachse figuring it out. My #2 pick, however, would be Hendrickson.
6A Region 3
Cypress Creek– They were 14-2 in district play with the only losses vs Jersey Village; They made a great run at the MISD Spring Creek Invitational after Christmas, only losing to Timberview in the final. ‘21’s Rori Harmon and Kyndall Hunter are an electric backcourt – one of the best in the country.
Jersey Village– The Truong twins are headed to Gonzaga and worth the price of admission. They went undefeated in district play. We look for a Regional Final matchup of Jersey Village and Cypress Creek.
Summer Creek– They went 14-2 in district play, dropping the games to Atascocita. They lost a post player to injury (’20 Kenyal Perry), but have ’20 forward Maliyah Johnson and guard Mailyn Wilkerson that give them firepower.
Houston Westside– They play in a relatively weak district and have losses vs the highly regarded opponents throughout the year. However, they have a major inside presence in ’20 Fatou Samband a solid guard in Air Force bound Kayla Pilson.
Katy– Again, this is a team that ran through their district, but has L’s vs quality opponents outside of the district.Jason’s Pick – Jersey Village
Shane’s Pick – Cypress Creek
6A Region 4
Austin Westlake– Westlake has played a quality non-district schedule, so they know what is waiting for them in the playoffs. ’20 wing Shay Holle anchors a junior laden team with ’20 PG Presley Bennett and wing ’20 Bailee Chynoweth.
Why Westlake wins it– They click at the right time. They have shown flashes, but can also have droughts of scoring. HC Katie Hensle and staff game plan well, but in crunch time moments, players have to make plays. Could there be some growth moments for these juniors?
Why Westlake doesn’t win it– Foul trouble or losing themselves in the moment of a big game. It is still a relatively new stage to them – and getting over the hump may be more mental than physical with this group.
Cibolo Steele– Talented, but injuries have held them back. They have made runs in the past, but this year it just seems like a real uphill battle. ’20 Zaya Price has had a really good year.
Converse Judson– USC signee Kyra White, New Mexico signee Corina Carter, and ’21 emerging guard/wing Kierra Sanderlin are major threats for Judson. They have all but owned this region for a few years now.. and are the odd’s on favorite. Poise in crunch time and perimeter shooting are key for them.
Other teams to watch
Smithson Valley– Trinity Garrett and Anika McGarity are key players for this gritty team
SA Northside Brandeis– TABC #9 in the state | Key Wins: Arlington Bowie, South Grand Prairie
SA Northside Clark– TABC #8
SA Northside O’Connor– UALR signee Nicole Hemphill and freshman breakout player Carleigh Wenzel lead this attack; Losses in district are to Clark and Brandeis.Jason’s Pick – Westlake
Shane’s Pick – Judson
5A REGION 1
Mansfield Timberview comes into the state tourney as the heavy favorite. Timberview will see every opponent’s best shot. Three players headed to Houston Baptist, one to Rice, and one to Stephen F. Austin – a D1 starting lineup!
Mansfield Timberview– Timberview features the best starting 5 in the state. Timberview is deep and senior-laden with 7 seniors who all contribute. They guard, get out in transition, and can switch opponents’ offensive actions, which is disruptive.
Why Timberview wins it– Best team. Timberview has been the best team all season long and has been to the State Championship game the last 2 years.
Why Timberview doesn’t win it– Pressure. As stated previously, Timberview is the heavy favorite and will have to carry that weight throughout the playoffs. Timberview must also overcome the ghosts of two close state championship losses in the last two years. The fact is they play seven “must win” games in the playoff format, and their opponent is playing with house money. They must embrace the role of “the hunted” as well as feed on the hunger to finish the job this year.
Amarillo– Amarillo is a very dangerous team in the region. Amarillo controls the pace and plays with discipline on both ends of the floor.
Why Amarillo wins it– Unafraid. The defending state champs beat Mansfield Timberview in the State Championship game last year. Amarillo is not going to blink if/when they matchup with Timberview. They came to the MISD post-Christmas tournament to see the Metroplex competition once again, so they will be ready.
Why Amarillo doesn’t win it– Timberview. Amarillo is unable to overcome the heavy favorite in the expected regional showdown.
Crowley– Crowley has had a solid regular season. Led by 2020 Avery Brittingham, Crowley has become one of the better teams in the metroplex.
Why Crowley wins it– Familiarity. Playing in the same district as Mansfield Timberview and Mansfield Legacy will take away the fear of the unknown.
Why Crowley doesn’t win it– Perimeter shooting. Brittingham is going to be the focus of every opponent. Crowley must make enough perimeter shots to give Avery room to operate.
Mansfield Legacy– Led by 2020 super recruit Harmoni Turner and complimented by 2019 Texas State commit Keslyn King. They also have some youthful energy in other players.
Why Legacy wins it– Backcourt. When you have guard play, you have a chance. Like Crowley, being in the same district as Mansfield Timberview brings familiarity and big game experience.
Why Legacy doesn’t win it– Frontcourt. Legacy doesn’t have much size, so rebounding could become an issue against bigger opponents. Depth is also a concern for the latter rounds of the playoffs.Jason’s Pick – Mansfield Timberview
Shane’s Pick – Mansfield Timberview
5A REGION 2
Region 2 seems to be up for grabs with a fairly even field.
Frisco Lone Star - Led by UTSA commit Adryana Quezada and New Orleans commit Mia Deck, Lone Star is experienced having made it San Antonio last year. They are well coached by Katie Stinton.
Why Lone Star wins it – Experience. 8 seniors are going to be tough to eliminate.
Why Lone Star doesn’t win it– Lack of size. Quezada’s ability to rebound often camouflages Lone Star’s lack of size, but the issue could come up during the playoffs.
Frisco Liberty– Led by UNT commit Randi Thompson, Liberty has had a lot of success in recent years and will prove to be a tough out.
Why Liberty wins it– Pace control. Liberty is one of the more deliberate teams in the state and if an opponent gets down by 5-10 points, Liberty is extremely tough to play catch up against. They move the ball and take great shots and they do not beat themselves. They trust coach Ross Reedy’s system and game plans.
Why Liberty doesn’t win it– Scoring around Randi. The counter to the pace control that Liberty likes is to get them in a shootout, and if that happens, they need scoring from the other players.
South Oak Cliff– SOC has flown under the radar this season. Led by senior do-it-all PG Le’Mesha Madden and 2020 D1 recruit Emani Jenkins, SOC has all the tools to win the region.
Why SOC wins it– The right pieces. SOC has everything roster-wise to come out of the region. Up and coming HC Kelan Jones has built a very good program that looks to take the next step.
Why SOC doesn’t win it– Experience. While SOC made it to regionals last year, they have to prove to themselves they are ready to take the next step potentially against opponents that have.
The Colony– The Colony features one of the better backcourts in the state in 2020’s Tamia Jones and Jewel Spear. When you have an outstanding backcourt, you have a chance in any game. They have complimentary games: Spear being the better perimeter shooter and Jones plays better off the bounce and is a defensive stopper.
Why The Colony wins it– Backcourt of Jones/Spear take the region by storm.
Why The Colony doesn’t win it– The Colony is unable to come up with enough production on a night when opponents are able to match the production of the tandem. When an opponent forces Spear and Jones to get out of their respective comfort zone, they struggle, and will have to make adjustments.
Other Teams to Watch
Denison– SFA bound 2000 point scorer Zya Nugent; they made a Regional run last year.
Royse City– TABC #9
Lufkin – TABC #23Jason’s Pick – SOC
Shane’s Pick – Frisco Lone Star
5A Region 3
Cedar Park – It is back-to-back undefeated district seasons for Coach Donny Ott’s program. ‘20’s Nicole Leff and Hannah Wheeler lead this squad. They made a solid playoff run last year and look for the same again this season.
Georgetown – TABC #10
Manvel – TABC #4 and lead by Texas A&M signee McKinzie Green
Pflugerville – led by FSU signee London Clarkson, the program has had playoff success historically
College Station HS– TABC #14 | Key Wins: Rockwall, RR Westwood
Jason’s Pick – Manvel
Shane’s Pick – Cedar Park
5A Region 4
Kerrville Tivy – TABC #3; They have made the trip to State before.. Will they do it again? They have shown that they are a strong bet.
SA Veterans Memorial – TABC #8; ’20 Sahara Jones is the best player on this team. They have lost to regional foe Kerrville Tivy three times this year and very likely will matchup with then again the Regional Final. | Key Wins: Pflugerville and Mansfield Legacy
CC Flour Bluff – TABC #21
CC Veterans Memorial – TABC #13Jason’s Pick – Kerrville Tivy
Shane’s Pick – Kerrville Tivy
4A Region 1
Watch out for potential Canyon/Argyle matchup.
4A Region 2
Dallas Lincoln
4A Region 3
Hardin Jefferson– They have a freshman guard, Ashlon Jackson, who can play
4A Region 4
West Oso
Class 3A
TABC Top 10*
1. Wall (26-1)
2. Mt Pleasant Chapel Hill (31-0)
3. Idalou (26-5)
4. Woodville (32-1)
5. Franklin (32-1)
6. Jim Ned (27-5)
7. Poth (22-5)
8. Shallowater (25-3)
9. Ponder (25-8)
10. Buffalo (29-2)
Class 2A
TABC Top 10*
1. Martins Mill (31-0)
2. Mason (31-1)
3. Haskell (28-1)
4. Collinsville (27-1)
5. Wellington (24-6)
6. Panhandle (26-4)
7. Farwell (28-2)
8. San Saba (29-4)
9. Vega (32-1)
10. Woden (24-5)
Class 1A
TABC Top 10*
1. Nazareth (22-6)
2. Ropes (28-2)
3. LaPoynor (26-7)
4. Garden City (27-3)
5. Dodd City (29-3)
6. Whiteface (27-1)
7. Lipan (29-4)
8. Hermleigh (25-5)
9. Rankin (23-4)
10. Huckabay (29-4)
*Per TABC website
We will be out getting that #PremierLook during the playoffs and looking for
SHE GOT GAME Classic - Dallas invites.
